So far 2023 has seen some false dawns for the UK economy. The next few weeks’ data are critical.
Recession has been avoided but growth has bumped along the bottom.
And even as inflation falls from the double-digit levels of a year ago, it has proven more stubborn and sticky, and spread to the service sector.
The ONS’s recent huge revision of historical growth changes the picture of the immediate post-pandemic recovery, especially relative to other European countries.
Data released in September could show whether the crises of the past three years are being put firmly behind us.