Category: Research

Getting Back to Work: Dealing with the labour market impacts of the COVID-19 recession

The report shows there is clear evidence that prolonged spells of unemployment, particularly while young, can cause long-lasting ‘scars’ on an individual’s future earnings, employment prospects and health and well-being. However, the evidence also shows that this is not inevitable: reducing the number of unemployment spells also reduces the harm caused. Early analysis suggests that groups at particular risk in this recession are likely to be young people and the lowest paid, with women more adversely affected than men. Older people are also likely to be particularly at risk, and we would anticipate a stronger sectoral bias in the recession than in the last – with retail and hospitality appearing to be particularly vulnerable. This report proposes five priorities for action. At their heart would be a new Back to Work campaign, underpinned by local Back to Work Partnerships and a Back to Work Service for the long-term unemployed:

1. Investment in new active labour programmes for those out of work
2. Refocusing skills and training to support the recovery
3. An integrated and coherent offer for young people
4. An orderly withdrawal from the Job Retention Scheme
5. A new, partnership-based, ‘Back to Work’ campaign

Click HERE to read the full article from the Institute for Employment Studies (IES), 9th April 2020.

The case for releasing the young from lockdown

The UK is ‘locked down’ because of coronavirus (COVID-19). No clear exit strategy currently exists. This paper suggests a possible way forward that combines elements from economics and epidemiology. The paper proposes as a policy a ‘release’ from lockdown of the young cohort of UK citizens aged between age 20 and 30 who do not live with parents. The paper calculates that there are approximately 4.2 million UK individuals who fall into this 20-30 age-band and who live outside the original parental home. Of those, 2.6 million work in the private sector, so unless some corrective action is taken they are likely to be extremely harshly affected, financially, when compared to employees in the public sector. The paper argues that a young-workforce release of this kind would lead to substantial economic and societal benefits without enormous health costs to the country. In this way, the nation might begin to move forward in the footsteps of the young.

 

Click HERE to read the full article from Warwick University, 18th April 2020.

How are Gen Z responding to the coronavirus pandemic?

UK Trendence Research ran a snap survey to understand how university students and young people are responding to the coronavirus pandemic in the UK. Key findings included:

  • Over 30% of students are worried that they’ll struggle to get a graduate job as a result of the pandemic.
  • For those already in a recruitment process, just under 50% are still going ahead, with either minimal impact on the process or with their assessments moved to an online system – showing a level of agility from graduate employers.
  • A fifth of students have completely lost the opportunities they were applying for.
  • A third of all students said they would like to receive regular email updates on how employers at large are responding to the coronavirus pandemic.

UK Trendence Research suggests that the key to supporting students in this trying time, and to rebuilding their confidence, is regular communication from future employers on what they’re up to and how they’re responding to the situation.

Click  HERE to read the full article from UK Trendence Research, 2nd April 2020.

“Youth employment prospects are crumbling”

More than a quarter of firms expect to hire fewer graduates because of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD).

“Youth employment prospects are crumbling,” said Gerwyn Davies, senior labour market adviser at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development. “We are already seeing evidence that recruitment has fallen sharply, which is not surprising given that the government’s focus is on preserving [existing] jobs.”

This comment was taken from The Guardian, 20th April 2020 (found HERE). Click HERE for latest news and updates from CIPD.

COVID-19 will have a ‘scarring’ effect on the careers of young people

Economists have found a persistent “scarring” effect on the careers of people who enter the labour market during a crisis, with wages still lower on average as long as five years after starting work. Paul Johnson, the Institute for Fiscal Studies director, said: “Previous experience suggests that university graduates will start off in lower paying jobs than otherwise and will suffer ‘scarring’ effects such that they will be more likely to be unemployed several years after graduating. It will take several years before their earnings catch up with what they otherwise would have been.”

This comment was taken from The Guardian, 20th April 2020 (found HERE). Click HERE for the full update from Institute for Fiscal Studies regarding lasting effects on graduates.

More than a quarter of companies anticipate hiring fewer graduates

Some of the UK’s biggest employers have cancelled or delayed recruitment schemes and internships, amid concerns that the coronavirus pandemic could hit the job prospects of young people the hardest. Many of the largest graduate employers are services firms whose employees must work from home under the government’s lockdown guidelines, making welcoming new trainees difficult. At the same time, many big employers have already reported a steep fall in work, meaning training new workers has fallen down the list of priorities. More than a quarter of companies said they anticipated hiring fewer graduates because of the pandemic, according to a survey last month by the Institute of Student Employers. Non-graduate recruitment was also expected to be negatively affected for 23% of employers.

This comment was taken from The Guardian, 20th April 2020, found HERE.  Click HERE to read the full update from Institute of Student Employers.

Coronavirus and the Labour Market: Impacts and Challenges

Coronavirus is a public health crisis and the Government has rightly taken unprecedented measures to tackle it. This has included significant restrictions on much social interaction and economic activity.

The result has been the sharpest spike in unemployment on record. There were one million claims for Universal Credit in a two week period, 7.3 times higher than the same period one year ago. Gains in employment over the last five years have been lost in just one month, with unemployment already likely to be at least 50% higher. 

The impact of coronavirus will be felt unevenly, and there is a risk that it will deepen existing social and regional inequalities. These job losses have disproportionately affected young people, women and the lowest paid. These groups are more likely to work in sectors that have shut down or reduced activity, such as hospitality and retail. They are also less likely to be able to work from home.

The impact also varies significantly across the country: 18% of jobs in Greater Manchester are in ‘shut down’ sectors compared to 15% in the East Midlands. Likewise, 36% of jobs in the North East are in the most at risk occupations, compared to 32% in London, reflecting differences in occupational structure and ability to work from home.

The Government’s policy response has focused on: supporting businesses through grants, loans and other measures; helping people to stay in work, including by covering wages up to 80% of £2,500 per month per employee; and increasing the generosity of benefits. However, there is further to go and more we can learn from other countries. This includes the case for the ability to furlough workers part-time and increasing the generosity of benefits.

The future is highly uncertain, but there are five big challenges that policy must address:

  1. Support young people. We must avoid a ‘pandemic generation’ of young people with poorer education and skills prospects.
  2. Utilise people’s skills. We should match those out of work or furloughed to jobs growth areas such as supermarkets, as well as chances to volunteer.
  3. Prevent long-term unemployment. We must help those who lose their jobs back to work as quickly as possible, given the harm long-term unemployment does.
  4. Prepare for withdrawal of support. Emergency support should be in place for as long as needed, but we need to think about how best to withdraw it when safe to do so.
  5. Plan for the future. We need to think about how to combine high employment with improved security for people after the crisis.

Click HERE to read the full article from the Learning and Work Institute, April 2020.

Which industries are worst hit by both Brexit and COVID-19?

According to the CV Library, the top 10 sectors that saw the biggest drop in job adverts as a result of Brexit and COVID-19 are:

  • Catering – down 52.8%
  • Sales – down 23.8%
  • Automotive – down 22.6%
  • Recruitment – down 17.8%
  • Administration – down 16.7%
  • Retail – down 14%
  • Customer Service – down 13.6%
  • Marketing – down 13.5%
  • Manufacturing – down 12.1%
  • Leisure/Tourism – down 12%

Not only job adverts are falling but also salary, as hospitality pay decreased by 9 per cent, catering by 5 per cent and leisure/tourism by 3 per cent. Industries that hire key workers have also witnessed a drop in pay as agriculture is down by 17 per cent, distribution by 6 per cent and public sector by 7 per cent.

Click HERE to read the full article from HR Review, April 2020.

Coronavirus Risky Business: Economic impacts of the coronavirus crisis on different groups of workers

The coronavirus crisis has affected everyone. Everyone’s health is at risk and to combat the disease, working lives have been altered across the country. But some are affected more than others: the relationship between the kind of job people have and their exposure to big economic or health risks in this crisis is by no means uniform. This report from the Resolution Foundation explores in detail those very different experiences across the workforce.

The Resolution Foundation identifies four main groups of workers that have had similar experiences in this crisis. Key workers are most exposed to the health risks from coronavirus because they continue to work in jobs where social distancing is very difficult. People working in shutdown sectors are the most likely to be feeling the economic effects of the crisis acutely. Workers not in these groups are more likely to be able to continue working with some form of normalcy, with some able to work from home and some still having to go out to work.

The Resolution Foundation suggests that key workers and workers in shutdown sectors are experiencing the most acute consequences of this crisis. Across these groups lower-paid people, young and women stand out as the hardest hit.

Click HERE to read the full article from the Resolution Foundation, 28 April 2020.

Coronavirus Vulnerable Young People: COVID-10 Response

A report from the National Youth Agency identifies the top three concerns for vulnerable young people during COVID-19:

  1. ‘Increased mental health problems’: Over a million young people have self-reported mental health issues. There is a spike in calls to Help Lines, with 84% reporting worse mental health following school closures or being no longer able to access mental health support.
  2. ‘Missing from education’: With schools only partially open and youth centres closed, as few as 5% of young people are currently engaged in school and have limited or no access to youth work. Even when schools reopen there are 700,000 young people persistently absent or NEET (not in education, employment or training).
  3. ‘At risk, at home’: Over a million young people are at risk from any of the so-called ‘toxic trio’ of addiction, mental health, and domestic abuse. Despite this, child protection referrals have plummeted by 50% in some areas.

Click HERE to read the full article from National Youth Agency, April 2020.