A report that investigates the early careers of education leavers since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Key findings:

• Evidence from previous recessions tells us that young people who entered the labour market during downturns tended to experience worse career outcomes that took several years to recover from.
• The cohort that graduated in 2020, particularly individuals with university degrees, initially saw worse outcomes on some measures. They struggled to find work three to six months after graduation.
• However, the employment rates of the 2020 cohort had fully recovered nine to twelve months after graduation.
• Other cohorts who entered the labour market during or just before the pandemic did not see slower occupational progression or have worse job quality, with one exception: those from disadvantaged backgrounds were more likely to be in the same job that they held at school or university.

The report concluded:

• Despite the unprecedented shock to young people’s employment, hours worked and mental health in 2020 and early 2021, the IFS found no significant evidence of persistent negative effects. But did show that some cohorts graduating into recessions experience depressed employment rates and lower job quality for years to come.
• It also seemed that the rapid economic recovery and the boom in job vacancies as the economy reopened had so far shielded the COVID-19 cohorts from persistently poorer outcomes.
• The fact that significant harm had not been observed for the COVID-19 cohorts does not mean that they were unaffected throughout their careers. It is possible that gaps in outcomes between these cohorts and earlier cohorts would emerge over the next few years as the labour market became less tight if the relative lack of work experience and training of the COVID-19 cohorts put them at a disadvantage relative to other cohorts.

Read more here.

This blog was originally published on the website of Adzuna, one of the largest online job search engines in the UK.

One area currently of concern to policy makers is the extent to which labour market tightness has created upwards pressure on wages and has been feeding through into prices, and whether interest rate rises aimed at combatting inflation might now be leading to an economic slowdown and rising unemployment. To answer these questions, researchers require high quality labour market data.

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) has historically been one such source. This statistical survey conducted by the Office for National Statistics has been collecting data on the employment circumstances of the UK population since 1992. It is the largest household study in the country and provides the official measures of employment and unemployment, which are crucial headline indicators of the health of the nation’s labour market.

However, response rates to the survey have been falling for a while, with the pandemic accelerating this decline when face-to-face interviews ceased, forcing the ONS to rely on phone interviews. A smaller sample of survey responses reduces the confidence we can have in the headline estimates (i.e., the margin of error around the central estimate). Furthermore, differences in the likelihood of an individual responding to the surveys by group introduces the potential for the estimates to also be biased (i.e., not centred on the true figure).

This issue came to a head last month, when the ONS was unable to publish official estimates based on the LFS, relying instead on experimental estimates which took previous headline estimates from the LFS and updated them using HMRC’s PAYE RTI data and the Claimant Count, which themselves have their own issues making the fact that these were deemed more reliable that the official LFS estimates even more alarming.

The ONS is more than aware of these issues and has put in place plans to improve the LFS to reintroduce it as the regular source of official estimates on labour market activity, as well as continuing with the transition towards a ‘Transformed’ LFS next year.

Read more here.

Research commissioned by the Youth Futures Foundation, reveals that there are two groups of young people facing multiple types of marginalisation that are associated with a substantial increase in becoming NEET (not in employment, education, or training).

• Young people identified as SEN with no academic qualification above level 1 and;
• Young people who have a limiting disability and poor mental health, are two ‘clusters’ recognised within the research.

Until now, far too little was known about what happens to young people who experience multiple risk factors, or about how risk factors interact with one another. The report identifies how experiencing multiple types of marginalisation increases the risk of young people not being in employment, education, or training (NEET).

With the findings, Youth Futures hopes to help policymakers understand how best to match interventions to the complex realities of young people’s lives.

Read more here.

In August to October 2023, the labour market remained stagnant: both employment and unemployment rose slightly, while inactivity stayed at a similar level.

Vacancies fell on the quarter in September to November 2023, as they have every quarter since May to July 2022. Nominal pay growth remained strong and there was an increase in real pay in the three months to October 2023, as inflation fell slightly.

The UK unemployment rate was 4.2%, and 1.45 million people aged 16+ were unemployed. Unemployment levels increased by 13,000 since the previous quarter, increased by 206,000 on the year and were 77,000 above pre-pandemic levels.

8.70 million people aged 16-64 were economically inactive, and the inactivity rate was 20.9%. Inactivity levels were around the same as the previous quarter but fell by 232,000 in the last year. They were 257,000 above their pre-pandemic level.

The number of vacancies fell in the last quarter and over the year to 949,000 in September to November 2023, but remain 148,000 above pre-pandemic levels.

Read more here.

Latest statistics on youth unemployment as well as comparisons with other EU countries.

Youth unemployment is currently at a historically low level. Youth unemployment fell to 372,000 in June to August 2022 which was the lowest recorded level since records began in 1992. However, since then it has been gradually increasing.

Youth unemployment in the UK rose on the previous quarter in August to October 2023, while youth employment fell by 33,000. The number of young people who were economically inactive increased.

There were 535,000 young people aged 16 to 24 who were unemployed in August to October 2023, an increase of 10,000 from the previous quarter and 104,000 more than the year before.

The unemployment rate (the proportion of the economically active population who are unemployed) for 16- to 24-year-olds was 12.7%. This is up from 12.4% in the previous quarter and from 10.5% from the year before.

The number of young people in employment in August to October 2023 fell by 33,000 compared to the previous quarter and was around the same as the previous year.

Read more here.

Changes announced at Autumn Statement will tear down barriers to work for over 2.4 million claimants, who will be able to try work without fear of reassessment or losing health benefit top-ups.

New measures will help to grow the economy by providing long-term sick and disabled claimants a Chance to Work Guarantee – brought forward from the White Paper reforms announced earlier this year – and by making the Work Capability Assessment fit for the modern world of work.

These changes to support the most vulnerable represent the next step in Government’s welfare reforms, alongside the new £2.5 billion Back to Work Plan and following the landmark Health and Disability White Paper published earlier this year.

Read more here.

Views on 16-18 training due to the impending election is back on the agenda, the views of different parties are outlined in this blog that was originally published by Campaign for Learning.

Across all three parties, then, a shared aim is for a broader post-16 curriculum.

It is unclear how T Levels and Apprenticeships will fare for this age group, since both comprise single, substantial, occupationally focused qualifications, rather than even the typical up-to-four subjects studied for A Levels.

Read more here.

The rising cost of living has affected further and higher education students in the UK.

As UK household costs and bills have risen, university leaders have warned higher education students are at risk of becoming “the forgotten group in the cost-of-living crisis”. Black students, disabled students, students aged over 25, and students from lower socio-economic backgrounds are likely to be hardest hit by rising costs of food, transport, rent, and energy.

Read more here.

Back in January 2023, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak set out his priorities for 2023 and announced all children and young people will study maths in some form until they turn 18.

In April 2023, the Prime Minister made a speech on improving maths attainment, in which he argued poor numeracy was socially acceptable and maths needed to be made more accessible, so children did not fear it.

The Prime Minister committed to:

*A new advisory group to advise on the ‘maths to 18’ plan

*The expansion of ‘Maths Hubs’ across England

*A new professional qualification for those teaching maths in primary schools

Rishi Sunak has confirmed the reforms associated with these interventions are unlikely to be implemented fully until at least the end of the current parliament (2025).

In October 2023, the Prime Minister announced the ‘Advanced British Standard’ would replace current post-16 qualifications and include maths in some form for all students.

Read more here.

The government has announced £4.5 billion in funding for British manufacturing to increase investment in eight sectors across the UK. The funding will be available from 2025 for five years, providing industry with longer term certainty about their investments.

£4.5 billion will be delivered to eight sectors that are key to economic growth, energy security, and levelling-up.

Over £2 billion has been earmarked for the automotive industry and £975 million for aerospace, supporting the manufacturing, supply chain and development of zero emission vehicles, and investment in energy efficient and zero-carbon aircraft equipment.

Alongside this, the government has committed to £960 million for a Green Industries Growth Accelerator to support clean energy manufacturing, and £520 million for life sciences manufacturing to build resilience for future health emergencies and capitalise on the UK’s world-leading research and development.

With the entire manufacturing sector making up over 43% of all UK exports and employing around 2.6 million people, this funding is targeted at the UK’s strongest, world leading sectors; including where the industry is undergoing fundamental changes to remain at the forefront of the global transition to net zero, like the move to zero emission vehicles in the automotive industry.

Read more here.